At a live game, raising 3x or 4x the big blind isn't going to get anybody to fold. Standard raise is anywhere from 5x to 10x (at least in Vancouver). So today, after 3 people limped into the pot, I raised on the button to $15 with AQo. Naturally, every limper called.
So now the pot is $60 and we haven't even seen a flop. The flop comes 2c 7s 10c. It checks around to me, so of course I bet $20. It's a small bet but I've found, when playing live, post-flop bets don't have to be quite as big as pre-flop bets to get people to fold. I get one caller. Pot is $100. My read tells me he's weak so I figure he's on a club flush draw.
The turn is a blank. He insta-checks. I start to think maybe he doesn't even have a draw. I bet $40 which gives him 3.5 to 1 on his money. He thinks and calls. Ok, maybe he does have the draw. Pot is $180. I'm hoping the river doesn't bring a 3rd club.
The river is a blank. No completed flush. He insta-checks again. Now I'm certain he's not strong so I figure a 3rd bullet should do it. Since I'm absolutely sure he was on a busted draw I know the bet doesn't have to be big. I bet $25 expecting a fold. He calls. Uh-oh. Now I'm thinking, "How the hell did I get myself involved in a $230 pot with nothing but A high? I could've sworn he was weak."
I wait for him to turn over his hand because whatever he called with must beat my A high. He doesn't table his hand. Juuust great. He's going to wait for me to turn over my hand since I was the aggressor. Reluctantly, I say "A high" and turn over my AQo. He pauses for a moment and turns over AJo. Lol. I scoop a $230 pot with A high. Not only am I stunned he called 3 bullets with A high, the whole table is as well. My basic read was correct, that he was weak, however, my hand read was wrong.
And that was the start of my Friday night at the casino. Needless to say, I've been running well. +$395CDN in 3hrs total live play this month.
I'm only down $63.06USD for this month now. Crazy.
Anyways, I'm sticking with live poker for a while longer. Even though I don't always know exactly where I stand (clearly, as the above example illustrates), I at least have a better idea.
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