Double or Nothings

Hey guys,

A lot of people these days are wondering if poker is a game of skill or luck. It's pretty simple. If it were luck, then why have a round of betting preflop, on the flop, then the turn, and lastly the river? If it were all up to the cards, why not just have people put their money in once and deal all the cards out?

But let's look a little deeper. Who's seen "A Beautiful Mind"? It's about a fella named John Nash. He created something called the Nash Equilibrium. It's a game theory strategy. You can find out the Nash Equilibrium for sit n go poker games. There's a calculator over at Holdem Resources. Just punch in your desired sit n go payout structure/blind level and it'll calculate a starting hand range for you. Based on what? Based on mathematics. Someone very skilled was able to mathematically prove what hands the hero should push all in with against a single villain's random hand. This will also calculate a starting hand range to play against many opponents. It's unexploitable. That is, if you believe you don't have an edge on your opponents, a Nash equilibrium is what you should play.

Since poker is a game of probabilities, people tend to confuse the less probable with luck. Let's say AA gets cracked three times in a row by 22. Does that make it correct to call with 22 the next time since 22 is running hot? If you're not getting better than 4 to 1, no. See, AA is going to win 82% of the time against 22. But there's no law that says it wins 8 times in a row then loses 2 times in a row. So yes, people get lucky in poker making bad plays. AA might lose five times in a row because it's probability, not law. That's what keeps the fish coming back. They get rewarded for a bad play and will probably make it again next time. But no matter how "lucky" the fish are one session, they can't keep making bad calls with 22 and make money in the long run . If you don't believe me, try it out. Take a deck of cards. Deal 22 to yourself and AA to your opponent. Shuffle the deck and deal out 5 cards. Do this thousands of times. See who has won the most at the end.

Even though people can get lucky in the short run, probability and skill wins out in the long run, which is why poker is clearly a game of skill.

I've been playing a lot on Pokerstars lately. Double or Nothings. They're a great way to build a bankroll and Nash Equilibriums apply to them very much so. Try them out.

Later,
Sam